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Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 This Issue’s COMPLETE CONTENT 18 Wear Monitoring of Slurry Rubber Hoses using RFID Technology S. W. Moon 30 How to optimize Gas Pipeline Operations with Simulation Soft- ware and Artificial Intelligence J. Zhang 34 Assesing the Reliability of Rain- fall-Related Geohazard Predictions: Can we truly achieve Predictive Management? J. Aristizábal, C. Pedraza & C. Motta  Pipeline Technology Journal - ptj  www.pipeline-journal.net # #pipelinejournal

6 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 Chairman Dr. Michael Beller Director, Global Market Strategy ROSEN Europe Members Editorial Board Adrian Lim Global Management Consultant INTECSEA Asle Venas Director Charge Energy AS Holger Brauer Research & Development Mannesmann Line Pipe Prof. Dr. Jürgen Schmidt Excecutive Director CSE Center of Safety Excellence Dr. Khalid A. Al-Jabr Reliability Engineering Specialist Saudi Aramco Mahmoud A. Hakim Head of Discipline Pipeline Engineering ADNOC Group Dr. Marion Erdelen-Peppler Secretary General EPRG Max Wedekind Managing Director DENSO Group Germany Dr. Mike Kirkwood Director, Integrity Engineering Solutions T.D. Williamson Mohd Nazmi bin Mohd Ali Napiah Custodian/Head/Group Technical Authority PETRONAS Steffen Paeper Independent Pipeline Professional www.pipeline-journal.net ptj@eitep.de puBlishEr EITEP, Euro Institute for Information and Technology Transfer GmbH Marie-Jahn-Straße 20 30177 Hannover, Germany Tel: +49 511 90992-10 URL: www.eitep.de issn e-ISSN: 2196-4300 p-ISSN: 2751-1189 Copyright MatErial P 1, P66 © Heinz Watzka Managing Board Dennis Fandrich & Marian Ritter Register Court: Amtsgericht Hannover Company Registration Number: HRB 56648 Value Added Tax Identification Number: DE 182833034 Editor in ChiEf Dennis Fandrich E-Mail: d.fandrich@eitep.de Tel: +49 511 90992-22 tErMs of puBliCation Four times a year Editorial ManagEMEnt Marian Ritter E-Mail: m.ritter@eitep.de Tel: +49 511 90992-15 Constantin Schreiber E-Mail: c.schreiber@eitep.de Tel: +49 511 90992-20 Editorial staff Mark Iden Daniel Onyango advErtising Timo Eßer E-Mail: t.esser@eitep.de Tel: +49 51190992-99

8 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025

10 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 Winner Entries of the 2025 PHOTO CONTEST more information at www.pipeline-conference.com/photo-contest

12 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 Interview with YPI Early Achievement Award winner Omar Bouledroua How does it feel to receive such recognition from your peers in the pipeline industry? conferences where I’ve presented research on hydrogen embrittlement and fatigue. Receiving the YPI Early Achievement Award is a tre- mendous honor and a deeply meaningful recognition. It brings me great pride—not only personally, but also on behalf of my company, SONATRACH, and my coun- try, Algeria. This award encourages me to continue pushing boundaries in the pipeline sector and moti- vates me to contribute even more to innovation and sustainability in our industry. Could you tell us about your background and how you became involved in the pipeline industry? I hold a PhD in mechanical engineering and have al- ways been passionate about the behavior of mate- rials under operational constraints. My journey at SONATRACH started in the Research and Development department in 2018, where I’ve had the opportunity to work on topics ranging from pipeline integrity and hy- drogen transport to in-service welding techniques. My involvement in welding under pressure, a critical ac- tivity in pipeline maintenance, further deepened my engagement with the pipeline industry. Could you discuss significant milestones that have led you to where you are right now in your career? One of the key milestones was the development of a pat- ented process for in-service welding of thin-walled pipe- lines using an austenitic buttering layer. This innovation helps ensure the safety and structural reliability of pipe- lines during maintenance without interrupting produc- tion—a major advancement for operational continuity. Other milestones include my work on hydrogen pipe- line qualification and my participation in international Can you share any notable projects or initia- tives you've worked on that have had a signifi- cant impact on the pipeline industry? In addition to my work on hydrogen embrittlement in API 5L steel pipelines, I led a project on developing and qualifying a welding procedure for live pipeline repair, which resulted in an officially recognized patent. This technology has real-world impact by improving safety and minimizing downtime. I’ve also contributed to the qualification of composite repair systems for pipeline defects and to studies on the reuse of natural gas pipe- lines for hydrogen transport. In your experience, what are some of the key challenges that the pipeline industry faces today? The industry is currently navigating complex chal- lenges such as the repurposing of existing infrastruc- ture for hydrogen, aging assets, stricter safety and en- vironmental regulations, and the need for real-time monitoring. Technologically, performing interventions like in-service welding in a safe and controlled way is also a challenge that requires expertise, innovation, and regulatory support. What role do you believe young professionals can play in shaping the future of the pipeline industry? Young professionals are essential to the future of the pipeline industry. They bring innovation, adaptabil- ity, and a strong focus on sustainability. Through R&D, digitalization, and advanced techniques like in-service welding or AI-based monitoring, we can modernize

14 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 Interview with YPI Emerging Young Pipeline Professional Award winner Allison Gabriel Winning this Award is a significant achievement. Can you share with us how you felt when you re- ceived the news and what it means to you? Could you provide an overview of your work or research focus and the potential impact it can have on the pipeline industry? On April 1st, 2025, I opened my email in my small stu- dent room where I birthed my innovation and I was dumbfounded when I received the mail, I couldn’t fathom the joy and great sense of relieve after several days of refreshing my email and spam too. The sub- ject line screamed: ‘CONGRATULATIONS, YPI AWARD WINNER!’ I collapsed into tears. I screamed, cried, then called my mentor Engr. Ugbehe Okeoghene, Co- founder, Future Energy Leaders Network, who endorsed my nomination for the award, made sure my visa pro- cess and experience was smooth. “Oga, we did it!”, Next, I ran to my Project Supervisor, Engr. Dr. K. K. Dune, in his office on campus, we celebrated, laughed, cheered, afterwards I called my family members especially, my uncle, Prof. Justin M.O. Gabriel, and my parents Mr. and Mrs. Chimezie Gabriel, it was a huge milestone achieved by all who motivated and encouraged me during the re- search and development process, my supportive friend too Anthony Okere. Receiving this award means a lot to my professional growth and career trajectory as “ThePipelineGuy”, an in- novator and an emerging young pipeline engineer. With the support of Engr. Dr. Vincent Onuegbu Izonworu, the technical chairmen of the Nigerian International Pipeline Technology and Security Conference (NIPITECs 2024) gave me a massive support during my presenta- tion of this innovative research at the conference, it gained attention from Nigeria Industry Elites and this sprouted from there. This achievement isn’t just for me. It’s for every everyone who’s ever been told their dreams are too small. This is a testament of world-class teach- ing, innovative student-led research in Rivers State University. It was just an undergraduate project which was a re- quirement for graduation, but I wanted to solve real pain. In Nigeria, pipelines which are said to be the backbone of the energy industry face numerous chal- lenges from vandalism, aging infrastructure, sabo- tage, pipeline leaks and rupture. This has resulted in economic losses to producing companies and the gov- ernment. The numbers are really staggering and op- erators searching for solutions, not only economically, but environmentally. Soil contamination and degrada- tion, caused by these pipeline leaks due to third-party interference and mechanical failure has done more harm to the livelihood of the farmers and fishermen in the rural areas especially the Niger Delta region. So, I built a simple but smart system: tiny sensors on pipes that send alerts to operators’ phones when leaks, pres- sure drops and diversion of flow to bunkering sites oc- curs. No fancy laboratory, just grit, Internet of Things, a microcontroller, and cloud technology. It cuts false alarms by 60%, reduced financial losses for govern- ment and operators by 65% and secured our environ- ment form degradation as a result of leakage with- out immediate intervention. If deployed, it could save communities, farms… and billions for our industry. What motivates and inspires you to continue pursuing a career in research and academia? First and foremost, I carry the scars of my homeland Ogba, Rivers State, Nigeria. Cassava farms blackened by oil spills and fishermen weeping over poisoned nets. My father once told me: "Allison, be the voice our land never had." I am driven by the pursuit of knowledge and the de- sire to contribute to our understanding of the world.

16 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 Research allows me to explore unanswered questions and develop innovative solutions that can have a real im- pact on society. The thrill of discovery, whether through experimental work or theoretical frameworks, continu- ally fuels my passion. Additionally, being recognized with the YPI award has reinforced my belief in the importance of advocacy for emerging professionals in our field. I feel a responsibil- ity to give back by promoting inclusivity and diversity in STEM. Ensuring that underrepresented voices have a platform and support in academia is a cause that drives me, as I believe that diverse perspectives lead to more ro- bust and innovative research outcomes. In summary, my commitment to a career in research and academia is fueled by a passion for knowledge, a dedi- cation to mentorship, the joy of collaboration, a desire for inclusivity, and the potential to create positive soci- etal impact. These elements not only inspire me but also guide my efforts as I strive to make a difference in my field and beyond. Academia isn’t about papers – it’s about people. Every leak we stop is a society saved. What are the key challenges you have faced in your research journey so far, and how have you managed to overcome them? Failures? So many! Sensors failed. Code crashed. I cried in our lab at 4pm. But my faith and stubborn hope kept me going. I’d pray, tweak one line of code… try again. I fought through several odds: no field data (oil firms locked records), swamp heating up electron- ics, and thieves hunting our devices. So, we engineered workarounds: • Simulated leaks via PIPESIM, tuning Darcy- Weisbach equations to Niger Delta’s crude viscosity. • Weatherproofed sensors in IP67 casings, powered by electricity to survive humidity and sabotage. • A 3-month prototype trial on PVC pipelines proved As an emerging professional in the pipeline in- dustry, what do you believe are the most press- ing issues or trends that need to be addressed? How do you plan to contribute to their resolution? Look at the Niger Delta creeks—corroded pipes, sto- len crude. My solution? As an emerging professional honored with this award, I see urgent issues demand- ing our collective action: Rampant crude oil theft and sabotage especially in re- gions like my home, Nigeria’s Niger Delta region. This isn’t just economic loss ($3B/year nationally); it fuels environmental degradation. Communities drown in spills while thieves puncture pipelines in the night. My contribution: I will develop SmartPipeGuard a re- al-time, microcontroller-based system in industry standard detecting leaks in less than 2 minutes via pressure sensors and GSM alerts. It will cost 99% less than fiber optics, withstands swamps, and pinpoints leaks without GPS. It will be deployed across high-theft zones to turn reactive patrolling into proactive defense. Aging infrastructure meeting clean energy transitions. Over 50% of global pipelines are greater than 40 years old, risking leaks while governments push hydrogen/ blended fuels. Retrofitting is costly and disruptive. My contribution: I advocate for modular retrofits. This award isn’t just recognition—it’s a catalyst. I’ll leverage its platform to scale SmartPipeGuard glob- ally, mentor the next-gen engineers Africa needs, and prove that innovation born in crisis can uplift both pipelines and people. Beyond your technical skills and research exper- tise, what other qualities or attributes do you think have contributed to your success as an emerging young professional in the pipeline industry? While technical skills built my innovation, it was three communities that built me: 98% accuracy, zero false alarms. • Rivers State University Student Community, where I learned empathy in action. "Surround yourself with people who believe when you doubt yourself." • Organizing programs alongside the welfare direc- tor, Student Union, determination and personal development were also the key.

18 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Wear Monitoring of Slurry Rubber Hoses using RFID Technology S. W. Moon > Saudi Aramco Abstract A novel wear monitoring concept using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology has been developed for assessing the condition of slurry rubber hoses. This concept involves embed- ding RFID tags inside the hose liner, correlating their unique iden- tification numbers with tag location information, and tracking the presence or absence of the tags to monitor liner wear. However, ap- plying this technology to thick-walled rubber hoses poses chal- lenges. The Radio Frequency (RF) signal can be attenuated signifi- cantly while traveling through thick-walled rubber hoses, resulting in poor RF signal communication. Another challenge relates com- patibility with hose manufacturing process: the embedded RFID tags can be exposed to high temperatures during curing process, which may damage the embedded tags. In addition, rubber hoses are often bent significantly during installation to fit into the exist- ing piping layout: the resultant mechanical stress may damage the embedded tags. To validate the wear monitoring concept using RFID technology, a feasibility study was conducted in both laboratory and field settings. This paper covers findings and lessons learned from the study.

20 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY A novel wear monitoring concept utilizing RFID tech- nology has been developed [4], to provide condition assessment measures for slurry rubber hoses. This paper elaborates on the wear monitoring concept, dis- cusses potential challenges associated with its applica- tion in rubber hoses, and presents findings and lessons learned from a feasibility study. can be embedded at three different liner depths, 25%, 50%, and 75% as shown in Figure 2. With progress in the liner wear, the embedded tags will be lost one after another. By tracking the embedded tags via scheduled inspection, proper maintenance decision can be made as below: 2. RFID Wear Monitoring Concept The new wear monitoring concept utilizing RFID tech- nology leverages the unique identification number assigned to each RFID tag, linking it to a specific loca- tion where the tag is installed. In this way, RFID tags can function as location tags. Multiple RFID tags are embedded inside a piping component of interest and when wear damage reaches a specific tagged area, the corresponding tag is dislodged from the piping compo- nent, making it undetectable by the reader. Conversely, if the wear does not reach a particular tag location, the tag remains detectable. By monitoring the presence or absence of the embedded tags, the system can ac- curately assess the degree of wear in the piping com- ponent. Wear monitoring can be done through either internal or external RFID scanning, with external scan- ning offering the added benefit of online monitoring capability. For the application in slurry rubber hoses, multiple RFID tags can be embedded inside the liner of rubber hoses at different locations. RFID tags can be placed at different liner depths for progressive wear monitor- ing. For example, three tags (Tag 1, Tag 2, and Tag 3) • Detection of all three tags indicates that liner wear has not reached 25% of the liner depth. No main- tenance actions are needed. • Detection of Tag 2 and Tag 3 suggests that liner wear has progressed between 25% and 50% of the liner depth, triggering a preliminary warning. The spool can be put in watch list and a replacement spool can be ordered. • Detection of solely Tag 3 implies that liner wear has reached between 50% and 75% of the liner depth, prompting consideration for replacement in the next outage. A replacement spool can be stored in the inventory. • Failure to detect any of the three tags suggests that liner wear has surpassed 75% of the liner depth, re- quiring immediate replacement. Each RFID tag provides a discrete data point on the liner wear. Embedding multiple tags at various loca- tions can offer a more comprehensive understanding of component wear. However, it's essential to strike a balance, as excessive number of tags can compro- mise the structural integrity of the rubber hoses. Thus, Figure 2: Progressive wear monitoring using RFID tags.

22 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY optimizing the number of the embedded RFID tags is crucial to ensure accurate wear monitoring without sacrificing the hose's integrity. Additionally, the size and shape of the RFID tags are important considera- tions, as bulky or large-surface-area tags can poten- tially compromise the integrity of the rubber hoses when embedded inside them. 3. Potencial Challenges While the wear monitoring concept using RFID technol- ogy appears straightforward, the following three poten- tial challenges must be addressed. The first challenge is reliability of RF communication in thick-walled rubber hoses. The wall thickness of slurry rubber hoses typi- cally ranges from 4 to 7 inches. In case of external scan- ning, RF signal must penetrate highly attenuating me- dium to reach the embedded tags (Path 1 in Figure 3). Then, the signal from the tag must travel back to the reader (Path 2 in Figure 3). In thick-walled slurry rubber hoses, the one-way travel depth can be 3-5 inches, ex- pecting significant attenuation of RF signal. It is known that the material properties near the tag affect the effi- ciency of RF communication significantly. For example, liquid especially water absorbs and attenuates RF sig- nal, particularly in UHF range. Metal reflects and blocks RF signal and cause detuning when tags are placed di- rectly on or near metal surfaces. Rubbers filled with car- bon black fillers can absorb RF signal and detune RFID antennas [5], degrading antenna gain and impedance match [6]. UHF RFID tags have been used for tire inven- tory tracking, where helical antenna is used to mitigate the stress during curing and working conditions [7]. The communication efficiency of the embedded tags was significantly affected by the tire’s dielectric proper- ties and multilayer construction [8]. The second challenge relates to the compatibility with hose manufacturing process. Rubber hose manufac- turing involves an autoclave curing process, where as- sembled rubber hoses are subject to high temperatures for extended time period (typically 135°C for 6 hours) under pressure. This prolonged exposure to heat poses a risk of damaging the embedded RFID tags. Another challenge relates to tag durability under severe hose bending. Rubber hoses are often bent significantly dur- ing installation to fit into the existing piping layout and the embedded tags may experience severe mechanical stresses leading to damage to the embedded tags. 4. Feasibility Study in Laboratory To prove the concept of RFID wear monitoring, a fea- sibility study was conducted using off-the-shelf RFID tags. For the development of embedded sensor tech- nology, use of compact RFID tags was considered a must. In this perspective, passive RFID tags were se- lected over active RFID tags. Passive RFID tags oper- ate at various frequency ranges, 1) LF (Low Frequency): 125 kHz-134 kHz, 2) HF (High Frequency): 13.56 MHz, and 3) UHF (Ultra High Frequency): 860 MHz-960 MHz. Compared to LF and HF tags which are based on near- field coupling, UHF tags based on far-field coupling provide much longer reading distance [9]. Therefore, UHF RFID tags were selected for the feasibility study. After review of various UHF RFID tags available in the market, TROI CC-71 and GAO tire tags were selected (Figure 4). Both tags were designed in compliance with the EPC Global Class 1 Gen 2 protocol, featuring a dipole-shaped antenna. The handheld UHF reader by GAO was used in RFID tag scanning. Figure 3: Travel paths of RF signal in rubber hoses. Figure 4: UHF RFID tags used in feasibility study.

24 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figure 6: Reading distance of TROI CC-71 tag and its variations under various rubber environments less (Cases 2-4). The longer the travel depth, the shorter the reading distance. • When the tags were encapsulated in rubber, the reading distance could be increased by reducing the antenna length of the original tag (Case 2-4). • The modified tags whose tag length is in the range of 4.0-5.5 in. (T3-T6) showed promising reading distance, with 23-32 in. in Case 3 and 11-18 in. in Case 4. The scanning results for the GAO tire tag and its varia- tions are shown in Figure 7. Key observations include: • The original GAO tag (G5) achieved the maximum reading distance of approximately 80 inches in air (Case 1). However, when sandwiched in rubber, the reading distance drastically decreased to 7 inches or less (Case 2-4). The longer the travel depth, the shorter the reading distance. • When the tags were encapsulated in rubber, the reading distance could be increased by reducing the antenna length of the original tag (Case 2-4). Figure 7: Reading distance of GAO tire tag and its variations under various rubber environments. • GAO tags showed shorter reading distance com- pared to TROI tags. The reading distance of G3 tag was 16 in. in Case 3 and 10 in. in Case 4. 5. Application to Prototype Rubber Hoses To optimize the tag length for slurry rubber hose ap- plications and assess the risk of tag damage during hose manufacturing process, prototype rubber hoses were produced and the embedded tags were scanned using a portable RFID reader. Four TROI tag variations (T3-T6) and one GAO tag variation (G3) were installed at designated locations during the rubber sheet lin- ing process, with the dipole antenna aligned with the hose length. Each tag type was installed at four cir- cumferential positions (3, 6, 9, and 12 o'clock positions) and at three liner depths (25%, 50%, and 75%) as il- lustrated in Figure 8. After assembly, the rubber hoses were cured according to the manufacturer’s specifica- tions. The prototype rubber hoses are shown in Figure 9. Two types of rubber hoses were produced: Hose A, which contained 0.5 in. thick helical steel rings for col- lapse resistance, resulting in a corrugated exterior and thicker wall near the embedded steel rings; and Hose B, which had a smooth exterior and thinner wall, without additional steel rings. Figure 8: Tag locations in prototype rubber hoses, with red dots indicating the embedded tags.

26 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figure 9: Prototype rubber hoses, a) Hose A with corrugated exterior and b) Hose B with smooth exterior. Figure 10: RFID scanning for prototype rubber hoses, a) Hose A and b) Hose B. a) b)

28 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY • In location A3, the 12 o'clock position was difficult to reach, even with the use of a lifting device, re- sulting in undetectable tags at this location. absence of the embedded tags, the degree of liner wear in rubber hoses can be monitored. • However, applying this technology to thick-walled rubber hoses poses challenges, including poor RF communication from signal attenuation and de- tuning, potential tag damage from the exposure to high temperatures during manufacturing, and potential tag damage from severe bending during installation. • Laboratory tests measured the reading distance of UHF RFID tags in various rubber environments, re- vealing that the reading distance of off-the-shelf tags was significantly reduced when surrounded by rubber. But with proper tag tuning, the reading distance of the embedded tags could be increased significantly. • To fine tune the optimum tag length and assess the risk of tag damage during hose manufacturing pro- cess, prototype rubber hoses were manufactured and the embedded tags were scanned using a porta- ble RFID reader. With proper tuning, the embedded RFID tags could be detected via external scanning. • A field demonstration was conducted using a com- mercial rubber hose, achieving a reading distance of 6 inches. The embedded tags could be scanned successfully, confirming that they withstood high temperatures and severe bending without damage. • The findings from the feasibility study suggested that, with proper tuning, embedded RFID tags could be effectively used for wear monitoring of rubber hoses. 8. Recommendations This study utilized off-the-shelf RFID tags, which were roughly tuned to demonstrate the feasibility of the concept. However, to develop mature wear mon- itoring system, custom-made tags should be devel- oped specifically for thick-walled rubber hose appli- cations. This will require collaboration with RFID tag manufacturers. Figure 12: RFID scanning in field demonstration The successful detection of RFID tags after installation in- dicated that the embedded tags withstood the severe bend- ing that occurred during installation. The field demonstra- tion results supported the use of embedded RFID tags for wear monitoring purposes. However, the relatively short reading distance posed a challenge in external scanning in the field. To overcome this limitation, development of customized RFID tags tailored to thick-walled rubber hose applications needs to follow. 7. Conclusion • A novel wear monitoring concept utilizing RFID technology has been developed for condition as- sessment of rubber hoses. RFID tags are embedded inside the liner of rubber hoses and their unique identification numbers are linked with tag lo- cation information. By tracking the presence or

30 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY How to optimize Gas Pipeline Operations with Simulation Software and Artificial Intelligence J. Zhang > Atmos International Abstract Natural gas has been a key energy source for over 200 years, supporting heating, the generation of electricity and manufacturing. While pipelines remain the saf- est transport method, maintaining gas operations to meet the varying demands of a wide range of customers has become increasingly complex. Access to scalable computing power enables rapid pipeline simulations. Combined with advanced artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms it can enhance gas transmission and distribution operations. In this article, Atmos International’s (Atmos) CEO and founder Dr Jun Zhang examines how simulation software and artificial intelligence can optimize gas pipeline operations.

32 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY 3. Adapting to changing gas demand patterns Modern gas pipeline networks span thousands of miles and serve multiple delivery points. Demand is constantly shifting, with shippers requiring greater nomination flexibility and volume adjustments. Discrepancies be- tween scheduled and actual hourly demand flows add another layer of complexity and it falls to pipeline op- erators to continuously adapt to these variations while maintaining efficient operations. AIO can act as a real-time expert in the control room, providing operators with the insights needed to manage changing demand. It helps optimize flow, pressure, and gas composition under varying operating conditions, ensuring efficient and reliable pipeline performance. On operational gas pipelines, AIO can optimize capac- ity as hydrogen and biomethane concentrations fluc- tuate, generating a dynamic operational plan, provid- ing precise setpoints for flow and pressure at all control points to maintain efficiency and reliability. As energy consumption patterns change, operators must optimize supply management while maintain- ing cost-effective and reliable pipeline operations. 4. Mitigating rising operational costs in gas transmission and distribution To ensure safe operations, real-time pipeline simula- tion software like Atmos Simulation (SIM) Suite pro- vides a live view of the gas network, using flow, pres- sure, and temperature data from the pipeline. AIO can work alongside the real-time simulation soft- ware to help operators meet gas contract requirements efficiently. By analyzing planned and unplanned op- erational events, AIO provides control rooms with op- timized decision making support, reducing costs and improving overall system performance. Balancing operational costs with efficiency is essen- tial, especially for operators looking to manage risks in gas operations. 5. Enhancing risk management in gas pipeline operations To protect personnel, the public, customers and the en- vironment, gas pipelines must operate within defined pressure constraints, known as maximum allowable operating pressure (MAOP) and lowest allowable op- erating pressure (LAOP). Exceeding these limits can lead to serious consequences. On modern gas transmission pipelines, MAOPs often exceed 100 atmospheres, however pipelines rarely operate in a steady state, so imbalances are common. Additionally, LAOPs are often required to maintain customer commitments and ensure pipeline integrity. Gas transmission and distribution systems are becom- ing more complex and operating costs continue to rise. Pipeline operators must balance increasing customer demands while integrating new technologies to en- hance efficiency and reliability. While there are built in safety margins for MAOP and LAOP, AIO helps operators minimize the risk of ex- ceeding these thresholds. By providing real-time rec- ommendations too, pipeline companies ensure safe Figure 2: An example of proposed flow and pressure set points recommended by AIO

34 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Assesing the Reliability of Rainfall- Related Geohazard Predictions: Can we truly achieve Predictive Management? J. Aristizábal, C. Pedraza & C. Motta > Cenit Transporte y Logística de Hidrocarburos Abstract Over the past decade, CENIT has strengthened its risk-informed approach to managing pipeline geohazards, focusing on early warnings for hydrometeorological threats. With a network of 90 monitoring sensors along pipeline rights-of-way, the system pro- vides near-real-time data on rainfall and river levels, enabling proactive responses. By integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) with geotechnical sus- ceptibility models, adaptive zoning identifies locations prone to rainfall-induced landslides, guiding timely inspections and oper- ational decisions. Despite advancements, rainfall events can de- viate from historical patterns, posing challenges for predictive accuracy. This study explores key insights, experiences, and opportuni- ties to improve geohazard assessments along pipeline corridors by blending mathematical modeling with heuristic approaches. Case studies highlight extreme precipitation events that surpass recorded data, illustrating the complexities of forecasting rain- fall-related geohazards in pipeline infrastructure.

36 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY However, this paper aims to present key experiences, critical factors, and identified opportunities that have enabled a pipeline integrity team to make meaningful progress toward overcoming these challenges. 2. Infrastructure Resilience Accurately identifying asset locations is essential for effective geohazard management, particularly when considering geological, geotechnical, and rainfall-re- lated factors. Historically, this aspect has often been overlooked despite its importance in assessing risk and ensuring infrastructure resilience. Understanding where infrastructure is situated re- quires a multidisciplinary approach, integrating data from geology, hydrology, soil mechanics, and climate studies to achieve a comprehensive characterization of rights-of-way. Zonation serves as a valuable tool in this process, enabling the systematic delineation of terrain and organizing it into distinct units that enhance geo- hazard analysis and informed decision-making. Managing rainfall-related geohazards demands recog- nizing deviations from normal climatic and hydrolog- ical behavior and evaluating their impact on rights-of- way. A thorough understanding of these variations is essential for implementing proactive risk mitigation strategies, safeguarding and ensuring the resilience of pipeline infrastructure. 2.1 Adaptative Zoning For over a decade, CENIT has developed adaptive zo- nation driven by data and continuous advancements in increasingly sophisticated algorithms and method- ologies. Further details on each stage of this process can be found in IPG2027-2529, IPG2019-5343, IPG2021- 65003, IPG2023-0045, and PTC2024_229. The key findings of this research have led to the estab- lishment of five distinct clusters (see Figure 1 and Table 1), which classify areas of interest based on potential geohazards. Additionally, this framework assigns cat- egories to pipeline segments, resulting in a detailed map (see Figure 2) structured under expert-defined categories, as outlined in Table 2. Figure 1: Adaptative Zonation Figure 2: Pipeline Category Map

38 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figure 3: Monitoring network of Cenit (rain-gauges, limnimeters and satellite points) Figure 4: Information Flow for Weather Analysis

40 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY previous precipitation trends, and a weather forecast for the next 72 hours. Artificial intelligence techniques, spe- cifically a supervised machine learning algorithm, are applied to refine geohazard assessments and improve forecasting accuracy. By noon, an earth flow developed on the left flank, ad- vancing toward a nearby road. Within an hour, the flow had completely blocked the roadway. Notably, heavy rainfall from the previous night contributed to the in- stability. Further details are provided below. 3. Study Cases The rigorous and systematic implementation of CENIT's Geohazard Management Strategy has signif- icantly contributed to mitigating and reducing events that could impact pipelines and assets. These suc- cesses stem from the ability to identify risks early and respond in a timely manner. However, geohazard prevention is not always feasible— certain events are too severe to be fully mitigated, lead- ing to pipeline ruptures or asset damage. Additionally, a geotechnical engineer may not always be present at the right time and location to activate early warning systems, safeguard lives, or collect essential data for scientific analysis. This section presents study cases that illustrate how the application of this strategy has led to partial suc- cesses. In alignment with the paper’s title, it also ex- plores how predictive efforts are advancing. Much like earthquakes, geohazards pose a challenge where com- plete risk elimination is difficult. Time for intervention is often limited, yet these early steps are crucial in re- fining the ability to determine where and when such events may occur. 3.1 Study Case 1 This case study examines a pipeline right-of-way affected by a massive landslide triggered by intense rainfall dur- ing the wet season. The region experiences a monsoon climate, as classified by the Köppen-Geiger system, with a monomodal precipitation regime that reaches 5,500 mm annually, peaking between March and September Days before the landslide was triggered, a rainfall warning was issued based on the meteorological mon- itoring and predictive schemes outlined in Section 3. This alert prompted a Right-of-Way (RoW) patrol and inspection by specialists. Figure 6 captures the hillside as documented by a drone image from CENIT's Geohazards Management Strategy implementation on August 3rd at 4:00 PM. Figure 6: Hillside Condition on the Afternoon of August 03, 2021 The image clearly shows the earth flow completely cov- ering the road, while the Right-of-Way (RoW) remained unaffected at that time. Additionally, in the upper por- tion, a prominent main scarp is visible, already ex- ceeding 10 meters in height. This scarp aligns with a change in slope angle, acting as a natural boundary to the landslide’s retrogression. Analysis of Landslide Dynamics and Impact: The middle and upper sections of the landslide main- tained their structural integrity despite experiencing displacement of approximately 45 meters. Based on the distance traveled and the time taken to reach this extent, the landslide's velocity was calculated to ex- ceed 4 meters per hour, classifying it as “fast” accord- ing to Cruden and Varnes (1996). Given its speed and magnitude, the event exhibited ex- ceptionally high destructive potential—while human evacuation was feasible, structures within the affected zone were completely destroyed. During an early morning inspection, retrogression of the main scarp of an ancient landslide was observed. In the early hours of the night of August 3, a gen- eral fault occurred within the right-of-way, leading

42 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figure 9: Comparative Analysis of Conditions Between 2014 and 2021 Ultimately, this rainfall event had a significant impact on multiple villages in the region. It affected a 230- kW transmission power line, as well as the main road, which experienced total or partial closures at eight dif- ferent points. Additionally, 4 kilometers of a gas pipe- line were compromised. The event also led to dam for- mations and flash flooding in local rivers and creeks, exacerbating the overall damage. 3.2 Study Case 2 This study case explores conditions observed in 2021 at a Pump Station during a period of heavy rainfall, fol- lowing the effects of a Climate Variability phenomenon. In addition to the earth flow affecting the Pump Station, the extreme weather triggered over 50 instability pro- cesses in the surrounding areas, predominantly catego- rized as earth/debris flows (Figure 9 and Figure 10). These events highlight the widespread geohazard activa- tion and the significant impact of climatic fluctuations on terrain stability. To provide climatological context for the area, data from a rain gauge situated approximately 2 km from the Pump Station was analyzed. This gauge, managed by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology, and Environmental Studies (IDEAM), is a conventional type and has been recording daily rain- fall measurements for over 40 years. Statistical anal- ysis of its dataset, available since September 1983, in- dicates that the average daily rainfall for the month in question is approximately 60 mm. Figure 10: Examples of Rainfall-Triggered Debris Flows with Notable Changes in Land Cover. Additionally, CENIT operates a rain gauge at the Pump Station—part of its monitoring network—located less than 100 meters from the landslide site. This system cap- tures, stores, and transmits real-time data, offering crit- ical insights into precipitation patterns. The rainfall re- corded in July 2021 was compared against the historical daily average of 60 mm to assess anomalies and potential correlations with instability events (see Figure 11). Figure 11 illustrates the recurring rainfall episodes ob- served throughout the month, with varying intensities nearly every day—except for July 2nd and 14th, when no precipitation was recorded. Since July 17th, daily rainfall consistently exceeded 30 mm, reaching a peak of 85.3 mm. Additionally, Figure 12 highlights the cumulative rainfall trend, showing a sig- nificant increase in accumulation from July 17th onward (shaded in red). The precipitation conditions during this period (July 17th–23rd) can be classified as extraordinary, emphasizing the extreme nature of the event and its po- tential implications for geohazard activation.

References 1. Bjerknes, Vilhelm. (1904). Das Problem der Wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanik und der Physik (The problem of weather prediction, conside- red from the viewpoints of mechanics and physics) - Meteorol. Z. 21, 1–7 (Translated and edited by VOLKEN E. and S. BRÖNNIMANN. – Meteorologische Zeitschrift - METEOROL Z. 18. 663-667. 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/416. 2. Köppen W. y Geiger R. (1936) Das Geographische System der Klimatologie. Berlin: Gebrüdcr Borntraeger 3. Chaves, J. et al (2019). A New Approach for the Geotechnical Zoning of the Rights of Way. IPG2019-5343. Proceedings of the ASME 2019 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Buenos Aires, Argentina. June 25-27, 2019. 4. Huber, S., Wiemer, H., Schneider, D., & Ihlenfeldt, S. (2019). DMME: Data mining methodology for engineering applica- tions - A holistic extension to the CRISP-DM model. Procedia CIRP, 79, 403–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2019.02.106 5. Anbalagan, R. Kumar, R. Lakshmanan, K. Parida, S. and Neethu, S (2015). Landslide hazard zonation map- ping using frequency ratio and fuzzy logic approach, a case study of Lachung Valley, Sikkim. Geoenvironmental Disasters (Springer Open Journal), 2015. 6. Sparks, D. N. (2008), Algorithm AS 58: Euclidean Cluster Analysis, Applied Statistics, Volume 22, Number 1, 1973, pages 126-130. Modified: 04 February 2008 7. Chaves, J. et al (2017). Probabilistic Approach for Assessing the Weather and External Forces Hazard Using Bayesian Belief Networks. Proceedings of the ASME 2017 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Lima, Perú. July 24-26, 2017 8. Aristizábal, J. et al (2018). Decision making methodology for geohazards management and its impact on pipeline in- tegrity. Proceedings of the UN/OECD Workshop Natech Risk Management. Potsdam, Germany. Sept 5-7, 2018. 9. Aristizabal, J. et al (2019). Natech Risk Management on Pipelines of Cenit. IPG2019-5342. Proceedings of the ASME 2019 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Buenos Aires, Argentina. June 25-27, 2019. 10. Chaves, J. et al (2019). A New Approach for Geotechnical Zoning of Rights of Way. IPG2019-5343. Proceedings of the ASME 2019 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Buenos Aires, Argentina. June 25-27, 2019. 11. Aristizabal, J. et al (2021). Supervised Learning Algorithms Applied in the Zoning of Susceptibility by Hydroclimatological Geohazards. IPG2021-65003. Proceedings of the ASME 2021 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Virtual, online. June 21-22, 2021 12. Aristizabal, J. et al (2023). Predictive Schemes in Geohazards Management of Hydroclimatological Origin. IPG2023-0045. Proceedings of the 2023 International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Bogotá D.C., Colombia. November 23-24, 2023. 13. Aristizabal, J. et al (2024). Geohazards Risk Management Strategy on Rights of Way of Pipelines in the Colombian Andes. PTC-2024_229. Proceedings of the EITEP 19th Pipeline Technology Conference. Euro Institute for Information and Technology Transfer. Berlín, Alemania. April 8-11, 2024 14. Fell R. (1994) Landslide risk Assessment and Acceptable Risk. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 31, 261-272 15. Lee, E. M., and Jones, D. C. (2004) Landslide Risk Assessment. London: Thomas Telford Publishing 16. Cruden D. M. y Varnes D. J. (1996). Landslide Types and Processes. In A.K. Turner, and R. L. Schuster (Eds.) Landslides: Investigation and Mitigation (pp36-75). Transportation Research Board, National Research Council. 44 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY impact on linear infrastructures. This capability sup- ports the development of preventive and corrective ac- tions, ensuring that hazards are addressed efficiently and minimizing disruption to operations. Additionally, adopting an inspection plan based on rain- fall conditions significantly enhances resource effi- ciency. By aligning inspection efforts with meteorolog- ical triggers rather than rigid schedules, this approach maximizes the effectiveness of monitoring efforts, al- lowing for targeted interventions that optimize both time and operational costs Building on the insights from the presented study cases, these findings highlight the effectiveness of CENIT's Geohazard Management Strategy in mitigating geo- hazard risks, particularly those triggered by extreme rainfall events. While proactive monitoring and pre- dictive alerts have helped reduce impacts on pipelines and infrastructure, complete prevention remains chal- lenging due to the unpredictable nature and intensity of geohazards. The first case study highlights how intense rainfall led to a rapid and large-scale landslide, affecting a pipeline right-of-way. Despite early warning efforts, the event resulted in pipeline rupture, road blockages, and infra- structure damage. The calculated landslide velocity and displaced volume classified it as a high-risk event, rein- forcing the need for continuous geohazard surveillance. The second case study demonstrates the broader re- gional effects of climatic variability, with over 50 in- stability processes, including earth and debris flows, affecting the Pump Station and surrounding areas. Analysis of long-term meteorological data revealed that extraordinary rainfall episodes, particularly be- tween July 17th and 22nd, significantly exceeded his- torical averages, intensifying terrain instability and amplifying geohazard risks. Both cases highlight the importance of rainfall monitor- ing, predictive modeling, and rapid response strategies in minimizing losses and improving infrastructure re- silience. However, the findings emphasize that certain geohazard events may surpass mitigation capabilities, necessitating improved forecasting tools, emergency protocols, and long-term adaptation strategies.

46 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Rapid Response to Geohazard Threats in a Changing Climate A. Young, A. Wilde & O. Gómez > ROSEN Group Abstract Most operators are aware of the threat that geohazards present to pipelines routed through hilly terrain or subsidence areas and those at river crossings. A range of management systems and tools is available to investigate and ad- dress these risks. Climate change is having an increasing but unpredictable impact on the development of pipeline geohazards linked to flood and erosion events, which can occur suddenly, overwhelming large areas and generating or accelerating instability of slopes in the region. Following such events, pipe- line operators should assess their pipelines to ensure they remain in a safe condition. Regulators such as PHMSA are setting time limits for these checks to be carried out following extreme weather conditions or natural disasters. Field verification of sites is a critical element of the integrity management pro- cess to confirm the nature and activity state of any hazards that are present. An imminent threat to the integrity of the pipeline may be obvious from an in- spection of the site, prompting the execution of emergency protection works. However, there are also many instances where impending damage from geo- hazards during site assessments is not clear, not identified, or not understood. In addition, threats in more remote or less frequently patrolled areas may re- main undetected for protracted periods, increasing the likelihood of damage or reducing the window for implementing protection works. In this paper, we discuss geohazard threat management in light of climate change effects, the methods used to support this management, and how the rapid inspec- tion of pipelines using IMU tools can be used to confirm the presence and pro- gression of sudden or fast-moving ground movement events. The advantages of this approach are that it provides direct pipeline integrity information and that it can be combined with more sophisticated integrity assessment studies.

48 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figure 2: Pipeline exposure in a river bank due to lateral migration of the river channel Figure 3: Pipeline exposure at surface due to buoyancy uplift during a flood event. Flow failures can be particularly fast-moving and de- structive to pipelines, for example (Ref. [1][11][12]). Significant flood events have been experienced across Europe during 2024, notably during September in Central Europe covering Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia (Ref. [13]), and the cata- strophic flooding in eastern Spain in October 2024. It is stated that climate change is altering the probabilities of extreme weather events causing flooding, with indica- tions that the current 1.3 °C temperature increase com- pared to pre-industrial times (1850-1900) doubled the likelihood of such events. Erosion from floods can rapidly scour river beds or river banks (Figure 2), resulting in exposure and loss of bed support, making them vulnerable to spanning, hydro- dynamic, and impact loads. This can result in rapid fail- ure, particularly if vortex-induced vibration occurs on spanning sections due to the current flow (Ref. [14]). Flooding can also result in problems of pipeline buoy- ancy and uplift, Figure 3, where the soil uplift resist- ance (a combination of weight and shear resistance) and pipeline self-weight are less than the buoyancy forces.

50 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY The key advantage of IMU inspection for geohazard management is that it is a direct measurement of the pipeline and, therefore: • Can reveal previously unknown loads • Provides factual data on whether the pipeline has been affected • Can be interpreted for the nature of the loading acting on the pipeline, which assists with field Verification and subsequent integrity assessments. • • • Indicates whether the loading is severe and poten- tially near performance limits Identifies changes in strain and displacement that can assist with understanding the magnitude of the threat and urgency of action Is a principal source of relevant data for use in struc- tural calculations of the pipeline integrity that opti- mizes confidence in the predictions because: It uses accurate pipeline 3D geometry data, in- ◊ cluding bends and weld locations. It provides validation checks of the predic- ◊ tions, which should simulate the measured strains and displacements. Structural calculations are used to establish the full pipeline integrity and to determine the magnitude of further movement that will reach the pipeline perfor- mance limit. These results are essential for providing threshold limits in monitoring schemes (including subsequent IMU runs) and when intervention activi- ties are required. It can also provide justification for high-cost mitigation activities such as major slope sta- bilization or sectional replacement. A critical aspect of interpreting IMU data for geohazards is ensuring that evidence of the hazard from the site matches with the measured bending strain and pipeline trajectory profiles (Ref. [20]). Errors in this step could re- sult in unexpected failures or unnecessary precautions and costs. An IMU is typically mounted on a smart pig platform and integrated with other technologies, such as circumferential/axial magnetic flux leakage and caliper tools. A key benefit of this is the influence of co- incident anomalies such as metal loss and cross-sec- tional deformation, which can be accounted for in the evaluation of bending strain loads detected by the IMU (Ref.[21][22]). These types of anomalies can impair the structural loading capacity of the pipeline and, there- fore, need to be recognized in the assessment of pipeline integrity. In addition, geometric features detected by ca- liper tools may be related to the loading source causing the bending strain, corroborating the presence of the hazard and assisting with interpreting its nature. IMU’s can also be incorporated into other platforms to facilitate a much more flexible deployment in the field. An example is the ROSEN RoGeo PD tool, where the unit is mounted on a cleaning pig (Ref. [23][24][25]). This is a standalone in-line solution to acquire inertial data at a substantially higher frequency using a simple and cost-effective approach (Figure 4). Figure 4: Example of cleaning pig fitted with IMU The data collection consists only of a time record and in- ertial data; in other words, there is no odometer wheel or requirement for placing regularly spaced above- ground markers on the pipeline route. However, a base- line run using a conventional high-resolution IMU tool is required in order to correlate the subsequent IMU in- spections mounted on cleaning pigs. This also requires awareness of any intentional changes along the pipe- line, such as the installation of replacement sections.

52 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY This is linked to the oblique crossing of the mudslide, which involves greater axial compression at the down- stream boundary. The progression of strain at the land- slide boundaries is clear and obvious, whilst the strains are reasonably consistent through the main slide body, indicating movement of a largely coherent mass. Further stress relief has been carried out during 2024 in order to control the strains taking account of girth weld locations as part of the landslide management program. The frequent IMU data is providing invaluable data to assist with this process particularly the scheduling of in- tervention activities at the appropriate time. 6. Concluding Remarks The use of IMU inspection is widely known as a key el- ement in the detection, assessment, and monitoring of geohazards. Recent tool developments have resulted in IMU’s mounted on cleaning pigs. This is an effective method for detecting bending strain change and pipe- line movement that meets an equivalent standard as conventional high-resolution IMU tools. The method provides significant flexibility in its use, with the primary focus on supporting geohazard man- agement. The key benefits are reductions in costs and interruptions to the product flow. They are rapid and easy to deploy, which means that the response time to severe weather or geohazard events is short. This pro- vides a proactive method for operators to demonstrate that their network is safe to operate following severe events or where the full extent of a threat is unknown. The addition of this technology provides an invalua- ble tool for operators running networks that are vul- nerable to the increasingly unpredictable effects of cli- mate change. Flood and erosion events are expected to increase, along with the frequency of slope failures. These can occur over wide regions, including remote areas with difficult access. Confirming the absence of immediate threats or identifying high-priority sites enables operators to direct resources to where they are most needed. The rapid response to potential geo- hazard threats and regular monitoring of lines demon- strate to regulatory bodies and stakeholders that effec- tive geohazard management practice is in place. References 1. Sweeney, M., Gasca, AH., Garcia Lopez, M., and Palmer AC. (2004) Pipelines and landslides in rugged terrain: a database, histo- ric risks and pipeline vulnerability. Conference on Terrain and Geohazard Challenges Facing Onshore Oil and Gas Pipelines. 2. Porter, M., Ferris, G., Leir, M., Leach, M., and Haderspock, M. (2016) Updated estimates of frequencies of pipe- line failures caused by geohazards. Proceedings of the 11th International Pipeline Conference. Paper IPC2016-64085. 3. Newton, S., Zahradka, A., Ferris, G., and Porter, M. (2019) Use of a geohazard management program to reduce pipeline failure rates. Pipeline Integrity Management Under Geohazard Conditions. ASME Conference. Paper AIM-PIMG2019-1045. 4. ISO 20074 (2019) Petroleum and natural gas in- dustry—pipeline transportation systems—geological hazard risk management for onshore pipelines. Geneva: International Organisation for Standardisation. 5. CRES (2017) Management of ground movement hazards for pipelines. CRES. Golder Associates, Spectra Energy, SSD Inc., Kinder Morgan. Centre for Reliable Energy Systems, CRES Project No. CRES-2-12-M03-01. 6. INGAA (2020) INGAA guidelines for management of landslide hazards for pipelines. Geosyntec Consultants, Golder Associates, CRES. Interstate Natural Gas Association of America. Volume 1. 7. https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets 8. IPCC-57 (2022). Report of the fifty-seventh session of the IPCC (IPCC-57), Geneva, Switzerland, September 2022. https://www.ipcc.ch/meeting-doc/ipcc-57/ 9. USDOT (2023) Geohazards, extreme weather events, and climate change resilience manual. U.S. Department of Transportation. Federal Highway Administration. FHWA-HIF-23-08. February 2023. 10. Jakob, M. (2022) Landslides in a changing climate. Landslide Hazards, Risks and Disasters, 2nd ed., Chapter 14. Elsevier. 11. PHMSA-2022-0063. (2022). Pipeline Safety: Potential for Damage to Pipeline Facilities Caused by Earth Movement and Other Geological Hazards. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). May 2022. 12. Sweeney, M. (2017) Terrain and geohazard challenges for re- mote region onshore pipelines: risk management, Geoteams and Ground Models. The Fifteenth Glossop Lecture. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, 50, 13. 13. https://www.gfz.de/en/press/news/details/ faq-zum-hochwasser-in-mitteleuropa-imseptember-2024#: 14. Young, A. (2025). Management of Geohazard Loading During Pipeline Operation. Chapter 47. In “Oil and Gas Pipelines Integrity, Safety, and Security Handbook”, Second Edition. Editor Revie, W. John Wiley and Sons Inc. (In print). 15. PHMSA Final Rule Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines: Repair Criteria, Integrity Management Improvements, Cathodic Protection, Management of Change, and Other Related Amendments. 49 CFR Part 192 Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. 2023. 16. PHMSA Final Rule Pipeline Safety: Safety of Gas Transmission Pipelines: Repair Criteria, Integrity Management Improvements, Cathodic Protection, Management of Change, and Other Related Amendments. 49 CFR Part 195 Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. 2019. 17. Froese, C., and Engelbrecht, J. (2024) Linking Satellite InSAR Ground Deformation Data Into Operational Decision-Making Proceedings of the 15th International Pipeline Conference IPC2024-134078. 18. Guthrie, R., Reid, E., Richmond, J., Ghuman, P. and Cormier, Y. (2018) InSAR and the pipeline geohazards tool- box: Instructions for use as of 2018. Proceedings of the 12th International Pipeline Conference. Paper IPC2018-78571. 2018 19. Scoular, J., Ghail, R., Mason, P. and Lawrence, J. (2022) Are measured InSAR displacements a function of the chosen processing method? Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology. Vol 55. 20. Senior, R., and Bainbridge, J. (2024) Case studies on landslide threats: Identification, ground modelling and pipeline structural analysis. Paper IPC2024-133935. International Pipeline Conference. 21. Wilde, A., and Gómez Rosso, O. (2023) Optimizing data and technology to drive down geohazard related pipe- line failures. Paper IPG2023-0044. Proceedings of the International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. Bogota. 22. Young. A., Wilde, A., and Grosmann, I. (2021) The contribu- tion of in-line IMU inspection to geohazard and crack mana- gement strategies. Paper IPG2021-65436. Proceedings of the 2021 ASME International Pipeline Geotechnical Conference. 23. Bahrenburg, D., Taylor, J., Figgatt, C., and Campbell, P. (2022). Catch My Drift? The Big Implication of a Smaller IMU Platform. PPIM Proceedings of the 2022 Pipeline Pigging and Integrity Management Conference. 24. Bahrenburg, D., Young, A., Edwards, J., Singh, A., and Norman, J. (2023). Above & Below: A Holistic Geohazard Monitoring Solution. PPIM paper No. 2023.56:53. Proceedings of the 2023 Pipeline Pigging and Integrity Management Conference. 25. Haring, B., Kole, K. and Young, A. (2022) Geohazard screening using a new and rapid IMU inspection ser- vice. Pipeline Technology Conference. Berlin. 26. Botia, M., Gómez, O., and Barrero, L. (2025). Advancing Towards Proactive Geohazard Management: Integrating Inertial Mapping Units in Cleaning Tools in the Ocensa Pipeline. 20th Pipeline Technology Conference. Berlin.

54 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY An Efficient Measure to Mitigate the Response of High-Pressure Gas Pipelines Crossing Potentially Unstable Slopes N. Makrakis1, P. N. Psarropoulos2 & Y. Tsompanakis1 > 1Technical University of Crete, Greece; 2National Technical University of Athens, Greece Abstract High-pressure gas pipelines often cross potentially unstable slopes under static and/or seismic conditions. Consequently, their struc- tural integrity may be detrimentally affected by Permanent Ground Displacements (PGDs) due to landslides, leading to pipe failures. Since pipeline rerouting is often unfeasible due to various tech- no-economic restrictions, several mitigation measures have been developed to reduce the impact of landslides. Nonetheless, these mitigation measures are not always practical or cost-effective. To address this challenge, along with the overgrowing demands for safe and uninterrupted energy supply, the current study introduces a novel pipeline configuration, namely "S-shaped pipeline". This scheme refers to a pipeline with one or more sigmoid curvatures at specific locations within a potentially unstable slope. The opti- mal position of the prefabricated curved parts along the landslide zone has been examined via finite-element simulations. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in handling detrimental local buckling phenomena in landslide-prone areas.

56 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY along with the reliable assessment both of the geohaz- ard and the corresponding structural vulnerability is generally the most efficient strategy. However, in cases where the optimal route unavoid- ably crosses a potentially unstable slope, the failure of which is expected to lead to excessive pipe defor- mation, suitable mitigation measures should be ap- plied to diminish the impact of landslides on struc- tural integrity. Accordingly, both geotechnical and structural mitigation measures have gradually been implemented. Geotechnical mitigation measures aim to decrease the driving force of the slide and also to provide additional resistance against the ground movement. This can be achieved by slope re-grading, lowering the groundwater table of the slope and con- structing engineering structures, such as toe berm/ buttress, slope reinforcements and retaining walls [9]. On the other hand, structural mitigation measures in- clude the use of thicker pipe cross sections and stiffer materials and/or special bends, low-friction coatings and lighter granular backfill materials [10], as well as more advanced techniques, such as flexible joints, an- chor points, innovative pipe and backfill materials and complex cross-section geometries [11,12]. The current paper presents an innovative design concept, aiming to successfully handle the impact of slope insta- bilities to pipelines, without the need for additional, im- practical and costly geotechnical or structural interven- tions. Specifically, a novel pipeline configuration, namely "S-shaped pipeline", is introduced. This scheme refers to a pipeline with one or more sigmoid curvatures at specific points on a potentially unstable slope, either onshore or nearshore (i.e., landfall areas). The optimal position of the prefabricated “S-shaped” parts along the landslide zone has been examined via finite-element simulations and the obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed mitigation scheme. 2. Problem Description Potentially unstable slopes may result in excessive exter- nal loading (e.g., distress of the pipeline due to debris slid- ing), PGDs (e.g., exposure and/or spanning of the pipe- line), or a combination of these actions [13], depending on the alignment of a pipeline crossing the potentially unstable slope. Three types of pipeline-landslide cross- ing have been broadly defined, as shown in Figure 1: (a) transversal (i.e., the axis of the pipeline is perpendicular to the direction of the sliding mass), (b) longitudinal (i.e., the axis of the pipeline is parallel to the direction of the sliding mass), and (c) oblique (i.e., the axis of the pipeline crosses at a specific angle the sliding mass). Several studies have investigated the response of a pipeline subjected to lateral soil displacements (e.g., [14,15]), assuming a typically infinite straight pipe- line subjected to a uniform lateral soil mass disloca- tion. The current study has been focused on a pipeline that longitudinally crosses a potentially unstable soil slope (i.e., Figure 1(b)), which is a common layout in engineering practice. The pipeline is substantially dis- tressed along its axis, since two deformation zones are developed: a tension zone at the top of the slope and a compression zone at the bottom of the slope. Pipeline failures are usually reported in the compression zone, which constitutes a more critical loading case for steel pipes, as local buckling may occur. Specifically, the examined problem refers to a straight pipeline that longitudinally crosses an infinite slope. Following the concluding remarks of Miles and Keefer [16], who reported that the minimum slope angle for a landslide to occur is 15°, a soil slope of inclina- tion, θ, equal to 15° has been considered. The length of the landslide zone, L, has been set equal to 300 m. Note that the worst-case scenario has been exam- ined herein, where the ground movement, d, which Figure 1: Main cases of pipe – landslide crossings: (a) transversal, (b) longitudinal, and (c) oblique.

58 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figrue 4: Curved part located in the middle of the landslide zone: (a) plan view and (b) 3D view. 3. Numerical Modelling The problem of pipe – landslide interaction has been ad- equately investigated by several analytical (e.g., [17,18]) and experimental (e.g., [19]) studies. Considerable re- search effort has been also devoted to the numerical modelling of this problem considering beam-type or shell Finite Elements (FE) for the pipeline simulation and non-linear springs or solid FE to simulate the sur- rounding soil (e.g., [20,21]), respectively. Herein, the widely-used Winkler-type beam-on-spring model has been employed following the suggestions of design guidelines, such as the American Pipelines Alliance (ALA) [22]. Hence, the straight pipeline has been nu- merically simulated utilizing PIPE31 FE, which are Timoshenko elements, representing a pipe in 3-D space. The width of the PIPE31 FE within the landslide zone and the 10 m–wide zones after and before the landslide has been set equal to 0.5 m, while a larger length (2 m) has been used in the extensions of the pipeline. ELBOW31 FE have been selected to simulate the curved parts of the S-shaped pipeline. These FE provide accu- rate modelling of the non-linear response of initially circular pipes and pipe bends when distortion of the Figure 5: Plan view of the S-shaped pipeline with different locations of the prefabricated sigmoid curvature(s): (a) at the end, (b) and (c) after the landslide zone. 4(b) illustrate the S-curved part located in the middle of the landslide zone. Figures 5(a) to 5(c) depict alter- native locations along the pipeline where the sigmoid curvature has been applied at the end of the landslide zone, and 10 m after the landslide zone with one and three prefabricated “S” curves, respectively.

60 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY Figure 7: Axial strains of a straight pipeline subjected to landslide-induced PGDs. Figure 8: Axial strains of a straight pipeline subjected to landslide-induced PGDs: (a) compressive and (b) tensile. Figure 9: Axial strains of a pipeline subjected to landslide-induced PGDs with a single curved part located in the middle of the pipeline within the landslide zone. 0.2%) before the landslide zone. Figure 8 shows the axial deformation of the pipeline in terms of strains along its length. Figure 8(a) displays the formation of the compression zone just after the landslide zone, while Figure 8(b) illustrates the tensile deformation of the pipeline before the landslide zone. structural response of the pipeline between the straight pipeline and the scenario where the curved part is in- cluded in the middle of the pipeline. This can be attrib- uted to the fact that the implemented curvature is not located within the critical compression zone. Figure 9 presents the application of the proposed curved part in the middle of the pipeline within the landslide zone. The pipeline fails again due to compression just after the landslide zone for a critical displacement equal to δcr = 0.29 m. On the other hand, negligible axial pipe strains are developed within the curved part. Interestingly, there is no discernible difference in the Figure 10 displays the case in which the curved part is placed at the end of the landslide zone. In this con- figuration, the pipeline experiences axial compres- sive strain equal to 1.55% at a much lower critical dis- placement equal to δcr = 0.19 m, while the maximum tensile strain reaches 0.16% before the landslide zone. Notably, the failure does not occur immediately after the landslide zone, as seen in previous scenarios. In

62 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 RESEARCH • DEVELOPMENT • TECHNOLOGY 5. Conclusions High-pressure gas pipelines often cross potentially unstable slopes, thus being considerably vulnerable to PGDs induced by landslides. This geohazard may pose a significant threat to the structural integrity of pipelines, potentially resulting in ruptures and leaks with severe environmental and socio-economic con- sequences. Since pipeline rerouting is not always techno-economically feasible, several structural and geotechnical mitigation measures have been devel- oped to reduce the impact of landslides on pipelines. Nonetheless, conventional mitigation measures are not always practical for various reasons. The current paper has examined an innovative and easily applicable design concept, without needing additional geotechnical or structural interventions. Specifically, a novel pipeline configuration, namely "S-shaped” pipe- line has been introduced. This scheme refers to a pipeline, which is aligned parallel to an infinite soil slope, with one or more sigmoid curvatures at specific locations. Several positions of the prefabricated curved parts have been ex- amined via finite-element simulations and compared against the reference scenario of a straight pipeline. The following conclusions can be derived from this prelimi- nary parametric study: • The lower part of the landslide zone is more critical for the pipeline, due to the developed compressive strains, which exceed the allowable limits even for relatively small ground displacements. A straight pipeline that is aligned parallel to a soil slope with a relatively low inclination and subjected to land- slide-induced PGDs is expected to fail due to local buckling just after the landslide zone. • Applying a curved part in the middle of the pipe- line within the landslide zone seems to have no ef- fect on its structural response. This is attributed to the fact that a big landslide creates two increased strain zones (compressive and tensile, respectively) with a large distance between them. Consequently, the part of the pipeline at the middle of the land- slide zone experiences low strain levels. • A curved part at the end of the landslide zone con- stitutes the worst configuration, since it leads to pipe failure due to local buckling within this part inside the landslide zone. Moreover, failure oc- curs for a smaller critical displacement compared to the straight pipeline. • The application of a single curved part after the landslide zone seems to be a more efficient scheme, as pipe failure due to local buckling occurs 10 m after the landslide zone within the curved part. In addition, applying two curved parts seems to have an additional beneficial effect as it increases the critical displacement that can be imposed on the pipeline, i.e., similar to the corresponding one for the straight pipeline. Conclusively, implementing an “S-shaped” part after the landslide zone serves as an effective mitigation measure, since any potential pipe failure is effectively “concentrated” within the curved part located at a safe distance from the landslide zone. Hence, in case of emergency, operators can easily isolate the curved part of the pipeline, thus preventing extensive economic and environmental damages caused by gas leaks. Certainly, further geotechnical and structural analyses should be conducted, considering both infinite and fi- nite soil slopes with different inclination and soil prop- erties, as well as the impact of pipe material properties, geometry and internal pressure. Efficiently handling the detrimental impact of slope instabilities to pipelines, without the need for imprac- tical and costly geotechnical or structural interventions. 6. Acknowledgements This research work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (HFRI) under the 4th Call for HFRI PhD Fellowships (Fellowship Number: 9408). Authors would also like to acknowl- edge Dr D. Chatzidakis for his assistance in numerical simulations.

64 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 ptj Young Pipeliner Barbara Jinks Director Ready4H2 The Value of Mentorship The YPPE mentorship programme is going from strength to strength. I think this is because of its essential role in connect- ing younger professionals (mentee) with more experienced people (mentor) and the benefits it brings to both sides. For the mentee, having access to someone who understands their field of work and who allows them to ask questions in a safe envi- ronment is invaluable. I have found that the questions are rarely tech- nical, but mostly relate to navigating difficult relationships at work, how to network and how to take a bold step towards an ambition. For the mentor, being asked for advice is rewarding and brings with it a sense of responsibility, authenticity and caring, and strong bonds can be developed. With over 20 years of helping through for- mal mentoring programmes and informal relationships, it has al- ways been an enjoyable task for me, and I've stayed in touch with some mentees for years now (true mentorship never really ends). It is important to acknowledge that mentorship is different from other forms of assistance - coaching and sponsoring. I was recently asked to join the YPPE mentorship programme and was paired with Nikolaos Makrakis, a wonderful PhD student from Greece, who is near- ing the end of his studies and looking at options for the next step in his ca- reer. His paper won the Dr. Klaus Ritter Award for Best Young Pipeliner Paper at PTC this year, on an important topic of pipeline design and construction safety in earthquake zones. You can read his paper on the previous pages. For my part, being a mentor with the YPPE allows me to “give back” to the pipeline industry in which I have thrived. I am sure that every one of you reading this has had a mentor at some point in your life, and now is your time to give back by offering your time, listening ears and advice on issues that you know to be true. And there’s no better place than the YPPE for that! Sincerely Yours, Barbara Jinks Director Ready4H2

66 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 ptj Young Pipeliner 1. Introduction One of the main causes of concern regarding metal- lic pipelines is corrosion, which can be mitigated by modifying the metal’s immediate environment. Brines (concentrated salt solutions) are typical downhole well-start up chemicals. Chlorides are the most commonly studied; these ag- gressive anions can initiate breakdown of the stainless steel passive layer, and subsequently cause localised corrosion. This generally occurs in three stages: pas- sivity breakdown, an incubation stage, and a growth stage/re-passivation stage. The corrosive extent of other halides are not as widely studied. As such, when bromides were proposed for a well start-up application in offshore Trinidad, the literature was surveyed to as- sess bromide compatibility against the 2205 duplex stainless steel used for flexible pipe carcass, and how they compare to chlorides. A NACE-published study [1] makes mention of reports of increased aggressiveness in the presence of a com- bination of bromides and chlorides, but their own in- vestigation found that bromides were more aggres- sive. A second NACE study [2] concluded that it is chlorides that are more potent, calculating that 3.5 times as much bromide (compared to chloride) is nec- essary for an equivalent reduction in duplex’s break- down potential. In light of this conflicting literature, and the change in ion concentration and pH that will arise as a result of changing salt type and density, a test was commis- sioned to better understand the extent of corrosion of 2205 duplex in this environment and the implications this has on design. 2. Materials and Methods The procedure followed for this test is standard prac- tice for the Baker Hughes Drilling & Completion Fluids lab near Aberdeen. It is intended as a screening test, and does not utilize the large-volume cells that corro- sion labs typically offer. The formulation of the brines used for the tests are shown in Figure 1 below. The test involves weighing the samples, suspending them inside the 316L ageing cell (lined with PTFE), introducing the test solution, sealing and pressurising with N2. The test was done at 70°C for 5 days, then the cell was cooled in a water bath. The test solution was assessed for any visual changes, and the corrosion coupons were exam- ined, cleaned, and weighed. Upon retrieving the sam- ples from the lab, they have been inserted in an ultrasonic bath prior to sectioning and microscopy. Figure 1: Brine formulations for each test 3. Results and Discussion Test 1 (NaBr) showed some features of localised corro- sion, in which the corrosion products seemed to pre- cipitate around the corroded areas, but there was no associated depth. Other areas showed deeper pits, and some discolouration. Test 3 (CaCl2) showed severe cor- rosion, numerous hemispherical pits at the sample edge and deposited corrosion products surrounding them. No features were found in the bulk of the ma- terial. The samples exposed to the mixed-brine solu- tion in Test 2 showed aggressive pit morphologies, tes- tifying to the detriment of the mixed-halide regime. The morphologies observed can be a considerable risk for through-thickness pinhole corrosion in 2205 rigid pipelines. Although the pitting observed in each test is not insig- nificant, it is extremely localised, explaining why over 99% of the pre-test sample weight was retained at the end of the test. 4. Conclusion 2205 duplex samples exposed to chlorides, bromides, and a mixture of both were inspected for corrosion. All three samples displayed features of pitting, some shal- low and others with an associated depth. Discolouration and deposition of corrosion product was also observed. A purely comparative assessment of pit depth is argued to not be representative of the extent of attack; pitting

68 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 ask the experts Ask the Experts Safety & Monitoring Q1) How can digital technologies improve over- all pipeline safety without increasing operational complexity? Digital technologies fundamentally transform pipeline operations by replacing fragmented, reactive approaches with integrated, predictive systems. The key lies in creat- ing unified digital ecosystems that consolidate multiple safety functions into streamlined workflows. Traditional pipeline operations often involve disparate systems for SCADA, integrity management, leak de- tection, and compliance tracking. Modern digital plat- forms integrate these functions into single interfaces, eliminating the complexity of managing multiple software systems and data silos while providing com- prehensive visibility. For example, Pipeline Integrity Management Systems (PIMS), such as Synergi Pipe- line, can help optimise inspection intervals, focusing resources on high-risk areas while potentially extend- ing intervals for low-risk areas through automated de- fect matching and corrosion growth assessment. This intelligent prioritisation reduces the burden on oper- ators while enhancing safety outcomes. Beyond integration, digital twin technology creates vir- tual pipeline replicas that enable automated anomaly de- tection, providing contextual alerts and regulatory-com- pliant response suggestions. Solutions like Synergi Pipeline flag issues for human review and suggest mit- igation responses based on relevant regulations and op- erating conditions, presenting clear recommendations rather than overwhelming operators with raw data. The transformation is from reactive to proactive management. Machine learning models continu- ally improve their accuracy as they process more data, integrating information from inline inspection (ILI), external corrosion assessments, and cathodic protection surveys. Rather than overwhelming op- erators with data streams, these systems can present unified, actionable insights that enhance safety while simplifying decision-making. Q2) What role do evolving standards and reg- ulations play in shaping future pipeline safety strategies? Recent updates to integrity management requirements, including the 2022 Gas Transmission Final Rule in the US, are driving operators toward more sophisticated, risk- based approaches. Some UK and European regulatory frameworks have similarly allowed risk-based approaches for several years, provided they are supported by sufficient, accurate data and robust analytical frameworks. Modern regulations emphasise performance-based integrity management, requiring equivalent under- standing of pipeline condition regardless of the specific technology used. This technology-neutral approach en- courages innovation while maintaining safety stand- ards - operators can use ILI, direct assessment, or other technologies that provide comparable insights. The regulatory shift toward continuous program eval- uation and improvement creates a framework that ac- tively encourages technological advancement. This evolution requires Pipeline Integrity Management Sys- tems (PIMS) - encompassing both software platforms and operational procedures - to be inherently flexi- ble and adaptable to varying regulatory requirements across different jurisdictions. Rather than prescribing specific technologies, evolving standards focus on out- comes and risk reduction, allowing operators to adopt emerging technologies that can demonstrate equiva- lent or superior safety performance. The Pipeline Integrity Management market growth re- flects this shift toward rigorous regulatory standards

This issue's partner This issue's expert Tim Manns, Principal Consultant, Digital Solutions, DNV Tim joined DNV in 2006 and is currently a technical lead for in- tegrity and GIS implementation projects for the UK and European pipeline integrity management market, primarily using Synergi Pipeline. Before this role, Tim held the position of Head of Section, responsible for the European teams implementing pipeline and plant integrity software products. Find more of your questions answered here: www.pipeline-journal.net/ news/ask-experts 70 Pipeline Technology Journal - 2/2025 ask the experts Recent research conducted by DNV has also identified that areas most susceptible to AC interference can be at locations where the pipeline and AC overhead lines diverge after they have been parallel. GIS spatial analy- sis algorithms can automate the identification of these locations, giving operators the knowledge of where to target current density readings and install mitigation. Q7) How can digital tools improve the long-term resilience of pipelines exposed to geohazards? Digital twin technology integrated with geohazard modelling enables predictive analytics and scenario planning that transform reactive maintenance into pro- active risk management. These systems create dynamic, real-time views of pipeline integrity by integrating ma- terial data, terrain data, and deriving soil depth from LiDAR with high-resolution inspection results. Geohazard modelling can simulate the impacts on pipeline systems due to landslides, earthquakes, flood- ing, and erosion. GIS spatial analysis within PIMS com- bines digital twin XYZ data for pipeline location and DTM (digital terrain models) to derive high-risk loca- tions from previously siloed datasets. When combined with real-time weather and climate data integration, this can create early warning capabilities that trigger protective measures before damage occurs. In the near future, the power lies in continuous learn- ing systems that integrate historical data with re- al-time monitoring and predictive modelling. These systems become more effective over time, improving their ability to predict and respond to evolving envi- ronmental conditions throughout the pipeline's op- erational life, ultimately creating infrastructure that adapts to changing risk profiles. Got more questions about pipeline safety and monitoring? Want to speak to an expert at DNV or know more about our solutions? Submit your que- ries here or write to us at digital@dnv.com.

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