[Analysis] How Offshore Pipelines Define Energy & Politics of the Eastern Mediterranean

[Analysis] How Offshore Pipelines Define Energy & Politics of the Eastern Mediterranean

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Eastern Mediterranean satelite image (© Shutterstock/Capitano Footage)
Eastern Mediterranean satelite image (© Shutterstock/Capitano Footage)

Offshore gas pipelines under the Eastern Mediterranean are redrawing the region’s balance of power more effectively than summits or warships.

From Israel’s Leviathan field and Cyprus’s new discoveries to Turkey’s planned undersea pipeline to occupied Northern Cyprus, these steel arteries are forging alliances, intensifying rivalries, and converting energy discoveries once hailed as potential peacemakers into geopolitical leverage in a long-contested corner of the world.

Major Discoveries Reshape the Energy Map

Major fields discovered over the past 15 years—Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar, Cyprus’s Aphrodite and Cronos, Egypt’s giant Zohr—hold hundreds of billions of cubic meters of gas, with Europe’s drive to replace Russian supplies after 2022 heightening their strategic value.

Yet the region’s fragmented politics have steered development toward pragmatic, shorter links rather than grand regional arteries.

Meanwhile, the most ambitious project, the EastMed pipeline remains largely dormant.

The roughly 1,900-kilometer undersea and onshore line was designed to carry up to 10 billion cubic meters a year (potentially expandable to 20 bcm) from Israeli and Cypriot fields via Cyprus and Crete to Greece and onward to Europe.

Backed by an intergovernmental agreement was signed in 2020 by Israel, Greece and Cyprus, the project’s timeline still remains uncertain.

Despite the delays, the European Commission still retained the pipeline on its list of Projects of Common Interest, granting access to faster permitting and potential funding.

However, the technical challenges in ultra-deep waters reaching 3,000 meters, estimated costs of at least €6 billion, and U.S. withdrawal of diplomatic support in 2022 over economic and environmental concerns stalled progress.

Turkish objections, rooted in disputes over maritime boundaries and Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone, added political weight.

By mid-2026, the project still lacked a final investment decision and was widely described as effectively shelved, even as occasional revival talk surfaced in trilateral summits involving Israel, Greece and Cyprus.

Pragmatic Pipelines Take Center Stage

In East Med’s place, shorter, commercially viable pipelines have proliferated and redefined influence.

Israel’s Leviathan partners, led by Chevron, have expanded exports to Egypt through the existing Arish-Ashkelon (East Mediterranean Gas) pipeline and related infrastructure.

A major deal valued at around $35 billion aims to substantially increase volumes in coming years, supporting Egypt’s LNG terminals that re-export gas to Europe.

Israel also supplies Jordan, reinforcing quiet energy interdependence even amid broader regional tensions.

Cyprus is following a similar path. The Cronos field, operated by Eni and TotalEnergies, received a final investment decision with first gas targeted for around 2028.

A planned subsea pipeline roughly 105 kilometers long will link it to Egypt’s Zohr infrastructure and then to Damietta for liquefaction and export primarily to Europe.

Aphrodite, involving Chevron, NewMed Energy and partners, is advancing toward a similar tie-back to Egyptian facilities, with frameworks agreed for long-term sales.

These routes capitalize on Egypt’s existing LNG capacity and avoid the costs and controversies of a direct Europe-bound pipeline.

Turkey has responded with its own infrastructure push. In July 2026, Ankara and the Turkish Cypriot administration signed a memorandum for a roughly 101-kilometer bidirectional gas pipeline from Turkey’s southern coast near Anamur to the occupied north of Cyprus, with about 97 kilometers underwater.

Seismic surveys by the Oruc Reis research vessel followed. Turkish officials frame it as supplying electricity generation in the north while creating potential reverse-flow capacity for future regional gas to reach Europe via Turkish networks.

The move entrenches division on the island and asserts Ankara’s claim to a central energy role, challenging the East Mediterranean Gas Forum that excludes Turkey.

Alliances Harden Around Infrastructure

These pipelines have hardened political geometries. Greece, Cyprus, Israel and the United States launched the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Centre in 2026 to coordinate security, infrastructure and research, reinforcing the “3+1” framework.

Electricity interconnectors, such as the Great Sea Interconnector linking Greece, Cyprus and Israel, have gained prominence as complementary or alternative projects, with U.S. lawmakers urging support in 2026 amid Turkish naval shadowing of survey vessels.

Meanwhile, Egypt has solidified its position as the region’s liquefaction hub, though its own domestic demand and import needs create competition for capacity.

The net result is a more fragmented yet functional energy landscape. Gas flows are increasing—Israeli exports rising, Cypriot production nearing first delivery—but largely through bilateral or hub-and-spoke arrangements rather than inclusive regional systems.

Pipelines have delivered commercial returns and partial European supply diversification without delivering the hoped-for diplomatic breakthroughs.

Geopolitical frictions over maritime claims persist, and Turkey’s exclusion continues to fuel parallel projects.

As Europe seeks secure non-Russian volumes and the Middle East remains volatile, the steel pipelines on the Eastern Mediterranean seabed will continue to define both the flow of energy and the contours of political power.

Their routes reveal who holds leverage, who is bypassed, and how resource wealth is converted into strategic influence in one of the world’s most contested maritime spaces.