China has emerged as the primary buyer of Canadian crude shipped through the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, surpassing the United States, according to ship tracking data. 

This marks a significant shift in oil flows influenced by the U.S.'s recent trade policies, characterized by President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on Canadian Products. 

The pipeline, which began expanded operations on May 1, 2024, and reached full capacity last June, is Canada's only direct link for moving oil from landlocked Alberta to the Pacific Coast for export. 

The roughly $24.4 billion expansion tripled its capacity to 890,000 barrels per day, opening new markets beyond the United States, which has been the largest importer of Canadian energy supplies for decades. 

While the U.S. remains the largest overall customer for Canadian oil via numerous cross-border pipelines, China has surpassed the U.S. as the top recipient of crude specifically from the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX).

Data from Kpler shows Canada shipped an average of about 207,000 barrels per day to China since the TMX ramped up its capacity, a substantial increase from about 7,000 barrels per day in the decade prior. 

The U.S. received approximately 173,000 barrels per day from the pipeline in the same period.

This shift defies earlier expectations that the U.S. West Coast would be the primary market for TMX oil. 

Experts suggest U.S. protectionist policies and sanctions on oil from countries like Venezuela and Russia have made Canadian crude more attractive to Chinese refiners seeking to diversify supplies.

Canada's overall crude exports to non-U.S. destinations rose by nearly 60% in 2024 to a record 183,000 barrels per day, with South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei, and Taiwan also receiving shipments.

Despite the TMX opening new export avenues, calls for additional pipelines to coastal terminals persist among some Canadian politicians aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. 

However, such projects face ongoing regulatory, financial, and political challenges. 

While the expanded pipeline enjoys new markets beyond the U.S, concerns have been raised over its operations at three-quarters capacity. In 2024, the TMX pipeline itself operated at about 77% capacity on average, partly due to high tolls.